Going into the UK general election, there was a consensus among the media and pollsters that just about any result was possible. Maybe so, but one of the outcomes where you could have got quite long odds has turned out to be the actual result: David Cameron's Conservative Party has won an overall majority over all other parties combined*. No more coalition (not that there's much left of the LibDem party to coalesce with): with a slim but manageable overall majority of 12 in the 650-seat House of Commons, the Tories can do things their way. Here are just a few thoughts on what may lie ahead:
Another election in the near future? You could have had decent odds before the vote on 2015 being a year with two elections, but the Tory majority has deep-sixed that prospect. Even if the Tories had fallen just short, the fact that three other parties (Labour, LibDem and UKIP) did so poorly that their leaders promptly quit, would have ruled out another vote any time soon.
A referendum on EU membership? Looks almost certain. Cameron promised a vote if the Tories won a majority, as they have now done. He has said he will campaign for the UK to remain in the EU provided some of the terms can be renegotiated, but a lot of his MPs, and much of the pro-Tory press, are ferociously anti-Europe. The EU vote is certain to be one of the key consequences of Thursday's vote, along with.....
Another referendum on Scottish independence? The Scottish Nationalists (SNP) under new leader Nicola Sturgeon won 56 of Scotland's 59 seats at Westminster, contributing mightily to the demise of the Labour Party. Many Scottish voters are incensed that the promises made by the main parties at Westminster ahead of last year's referendum have been quickly forgotten. It will be easy now for the SNP to portray the Cameron government virtually as a foreign occupier, with the Tories almost shut out north of the border. Ms Sturgeon says there can only be another referendum after a fresh election for the Scottish Assembly -- but that election may be only a year away.
More austerity? It looks that way. As anyone with even a smattering of economics predicted, the austerity measures instituted by Chancellor George Osborne have failed to produce the promised elimination of the budget deficit, because they crimped growth and thereby reduced tax revenues. Osborne has promised to double down on the losing bet, potentially cutting public spending as a share of GDP to levels not seen since the 1930s.
The end of UKIP? The fringe nationalist/anti-immigrant party led by the clownish toper Nigel Farage won only one seat, and Farage himself failed to win election . However, the party's total number of votes won was third largest of any party, behind only the Tories and Labour. Needless to say, UKIP has now come out in favour of electoral reform! It's unlikely that the party will go away, particularly if the Labour Party, whose disenchanted supporters provide many UKIP recruits, goes into a period of internal strife as it seeks a new leader.
And to end on a slightly comical note: Boris Johnson, Prime Minister? BoJo is back in Parliament as MP for Uxbridge and remains Mayor of London. If the Tories had gone down to defeat, Johnson would have been odds on favourite to succeed David Cameron as paty leader. He wants the top job, and Cameron has mused in the past that he wouldn't want to serve more than two terms, so....Depending on how you feel about Greek-spouting, bicycling, shock haired buffoons running the country, you may think this is an even scarier prospect that the UK leaving the EU, or Scotland leaving the UK.
* This was so far out-of-line with pre-election polls that a special inquiry is to be held (into why pollsters are so useless).
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