It's infuriating, but not in the least surprising, to find that large swathes of the Republican Party are pledging to do whatever it takes to derail President Obama's plans for a gradual rapprochement with Cuba. Infuriating, because the political and economic embargo that has been in place for five decades has been wholly ineffective in changing Cuban policies, while keeping the Cuban people mired in poverty. Unsurprising, because it's been clear for a long time that nothing Obama does, no matter how sensible or popular, will meet anything but shrieking opposition from the GOP.
The Castros were America's creation. Under the Fulgencio Batista regime in the 1950s, the island was a corrupt den of vice and depravity, effectively governed by American organized crime. Once Fidel Castro's revolutionaries ousted Batista at the start of 1959, the US spurned the opportunity to establish any relationship with the new regime, instead adopting a policy of unrelenting hostility that effectively drove Castro into the arms of the Soviet Union.
After the farce of the Bay of Pigs invasion and the terrifying brinkmanship of the missile crisis, relations settled into the stalemate that has largely persisted to this day. Deprived of the opportunity to trade with its giant neighbor, Cuba gradually regressed from one of the wealthiest countries in the hemisphere to one of the poorest. The slide into poverty accelerated after the demise of the Soviet Union, which led to a drastic reduction in the aid that Moscow had been providing to the island.
There's no denying that Fidel Castro made plenty of efforts to annoy his northern neighbor. Cuba undoubtedly attempted to undermine any number of governments around the region over the years. (It should also be acknowledged that Cuba put many wealthier countries to shame with its willingness to help out in international crises, the current ebola crisis in Africa being the latest). What's crystal clear, however, is that the US embargo has done absolutely nothing to change Havana's behavior. This article from Slate argues that it's one of the least effective foreign policy initiatives in US history. It's hard to disagree, which makes it hard to take seriously allegations from many Republicans (and one or two Democrats) that all Obama will achieve is to reduce US leverage over Cuba's future actions. There is no leverage to reduce.
All evidence is that the embargo is unpopular with US voters, even if politicians like Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz (who was, let's not forget, born in Calgary, Alberta) still hew to it. Congress may make things difficult for Obama, but he's used to that by now, and it seems likely that we are indeed witnessing a historic moment.
A final aside on the Canadian angle here. It looks as though the key catalyst for the rapprochement was the Pope, but the actual talks between the two countries were held in Canada. This inevitably led some elements of the Canadian media to claim a role for Canada in the deal, but to give credit to Stephen Harper -- something I only do with great reluctance -- he was quick to disavow any role as an intermediary in the talks. That aside, the main impact on Canadians that the press is now focusing on is that, once the existing travel embargo on US citizens is lifted, Cuba will quickly become a much more expensive winter sun vacation. And probably, as it starts to fill up with Starbucks and Mickey D's, a much less appealing one.
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